Earlier in the week, we will see
on Monday figures for Mortgage Approvals in June and the market expects a
significant decline to 48,000 – down from 51,100 in May. M4 Money Supply is also out on Monday morning
and market participants expect to see an increase in M4 of 0.30% in June, up
from a decline of 0.10% in May. A
declining monetary base creates deflationary tendencies.
Later on Monday figures will be
released for British CBI Reported Sales in July and a figure of 20 is expected
versus the prior report of 42. GfK
Consumer Sentiment is also out and expect an unchanged reading of -29. Tuesday evening BRC Price Shop Index will be
reported on a year-over-year basis, with the prior period showing a gain of
1.10%. Wednesday morning the PMI
Manufacturing figures for July are out and a nearly unchanged number is expected
by the market at 48.6. After Thursday’s
big news from the BofE, we have on Friday PMI Services numbers for July and a
modest increase is expected to 51.9 from June’s 51.3.
Japan: this week features a wide variety of Japanese economic
data. Starting on Sunday evening, we
have Japanese Industrial Production figures on a month-over-month basis for
June. The preliminary figure is expected
to show a gain of 1.50% versus the prior reporting period of a decline of
3.4%. Monday evening features the Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing
PMI outlook for July with the prior reading of 49.9. More on Monday: The Japanese Unemployment
rate for June will be out and market participants expect an unchanged 4.40%
reading. Also figures for Household Spending
will be announced and a decline is widely expected – albeit to a lower positive
level. Finally on Wednesday of this week
we will see the Monetary base reading on a year-over-year basis. July’s Monetary base is expected to have
grown by 6.20% from June’s figure of 5.90%.
Australia: A relatively light week is in store for Australian
economic data. On Tuesday this week we
expect to see figures for Australian Building Approvals announced in the
morning. On a month-over-month basis we
expect a 15% decline versus May’s high reading of 27.3%. Wednesday morning features the Australian
House price index for the second quarter.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis markets are expecting a decline of
0.50%, about half the prior quarter’s decline of 1.10%.
Thursday morning features
Australian Trade Balance figures for June and a deficit of 375 million Aussie
Dollars is forecast, as compared to May’s deficit of 285 million. Also out on Thursday morning will be Retail
Sales for June. Market participants
expect, on a month-over-month basis, an increase of 0.60%, comparing favorably
to the May increase of 0.50%.
Swiss: In spite of a plethora of Euro-zone economic data released
this week, the Swiss currency will be little affected by economic data this
week.
Tuesday features Swiss readings
from UBS and the UBS Consumption Indicator for June. Expect a reading of 1.05. Thursday we get the SVME-PMI Index for July
and markets are expecting a 47 reading, down from 48.1 in June. That’s all for the Swiss economic data during
the week, again a relatively light week of data.
Euro-zone: In the Euro-zone this week we feature a plethora of
economic data. On Monday evening we will
see figures for EU Consumer and Economic Confidence in July and readings
similar to June’s are expected. Also on
Monday we get Euro-zone readings on Industrial and Services Confidence – both
readings are expected to weaken versus the June reporting.
Tuesday features German economic
data in the morning with German Retail Sales being released first. Retail Sales on a month-over-month basis are
expected to have picked up 0.50% from June’s decline of 0.30%. German Unemployment Change is widely expected
to remain unchanged at 7.000 in July and the Unemployment Rate is expected to
remain unchanged at 6.80%. In the
Euro-Zone on Tuesday morning we will see figures in Italy for Unemployment for
June and the preliminary reading should rival the prior period of 10.1%. Also on Tuesday, the Euro-zone CPI estimate
for July is expected to be unchanged on a yearly basis. The Euro-zone Unemployment Rate for June is expected
to show a slight increase to 11.2% from May’s 11.1%.
Wednesday is a relatively light
day with Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing out for July. This preliminary reading is expected by the
market to remain unchanged at 44.1
Thursday features the ECB interest
rate decision and market participants see the rate being left unchanged at
0.75%. Following this interest rate
decision, we will have a ECB Press Conference where market participants may
glean additional financial and economic details. Earlier on Thursday we will also have data,
this time in the form of Euro-zone PPI.
Markets are expecting slight declines in the monthly and yearly figures
to be released.
Friday features Euro-zone PMI for
the Service Sector and market participants expect unchanged readings in the
range of 47.6. Also out will be
Euro-zone Retail Sales, which are expected to be flat in June versus May’s
increase of 0.60%.
Canada: In Canada this week we feature another quiet week of economic
data being released. Nonetheless, on Tuesday
we will receive an important piece of economic data with the Canadian GDP for
May being released. On a
month-over-month basis, Canadian GDP is expected to have increased by 0.2% in
May, versus April’s 0.3% rise.
Annualizing these figures, we approach Australia’s 3.5% GDP growth
figures – so the Canadian economy can show its colors with their GDP this
week. Also on Tuesday we have the Raw
Materials Price Index. Here, markets
expect an increase in raw material prices for June of 1.70% versus May’s decline
of 1.0%.
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